Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 37.537181 42.657725 48.754290 56.711094 67.086077 80.574590 100.237170
2025-04-20 30.642532 36.818255 44.955347 57.013804 75.596140 105.770292 166.652319
2025-04-27 26.550484 33.180249 42.589803 58.022322 85.633074 142.253127 321.235322
2025-05-04 23.748913 30.567027 40.816604 59.098178 96.591255 195.593750 848.271245
2025-05-11 21.538218 28.333459 39.004015 59.359570 106.408950 268.359752 6756.128957
2025-05-18 19.635620 26.232928 36.923591 58.374810 113.005689 356.430608 NaN
2025-05-25 18.310927 24.828480 35.718272 58.713148 123.760903 533.144674 NaN
2025-06-01 17.108431 23.458840 34.320665 58.199876 132.018246 809.131387 NaN
2025-06-08 16.058411 22.217890 32.955407 57.368402 138.996864 1308.394840 NaN
2025-06-15 15.163238 21.143552 31.743677 56.580527 146.011385 2505.844308 NaN
2025-06-22 14.431739 20.277357 30.809938 56.247105 155.330959 8847.417363 NaN
2025-06-29 13.672183 19.299485 29.541166 54.747744 158.109436 131901.699985 NaN
2025-07-06 13.461741 19.269118 30.166021 58.614085 197.346110 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 12.866937 18.509619 29.214756 57.781079 207.220310 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 12.433725 18.008373 28.745760 58.290456 229.879207 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 12.062792 17.591816 28.407233 59.134934 259.963562 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 11.675895 17.118117 27.892193 59.288408 286.311157 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 11.244798 16.535303 27.080232 58.258328 297.971628 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 10.931385 16.153722 26.680404 58.574075 332.201359 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 10.591836 15.702967 26.082705 58.053295 354.906600 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 10.258894 15.247254 25.435884 57.221098 372.025238 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 9.951213 14.824602 24.832335 56.434726 390.204246 NaN NaN
2025-09-14 9.688196 14.474808 24.370792 56.101906 421.092903 NaN NaN